中国生态旅游 ›› 2022, Vol. 12 ›› Issue (5): 736-752.doi: 10.12342/zgstly.20220090
收稿日期:
2022-05-31
修回日期:
2022-10-09
出版日期:
2022-10-28
发布日期:
2022-12-06
通讯作者:
*欧伟强(1982年-),男,博士,副教授,研究方向为创新管理、区域经济。E-mail: owq0502@qq.com作者简介:
沈庆琼(1982年-),女,硕士,副教授,研究方向为区域经济、港口物流。E-mail: 89191314@qq.com
基金资助:
Shen Qingqiong1,2(), Ou Weiqiang1,2,*(
), Zhong Xiaoyan1,2
Received:
2022-05-31
Revised:
2022-10-09
Published:
2022-10-28
Online:
2022-12-06
摘要:
学界对旅游经济发展是否推进了共同富裕尚存在争议。文章运用中国1999-2019年省际面板数据,采用动态空间杜宾模型,采用地理和经济特征双重视角构造4种空间权重矩阵,考察旅游经济发展对共同富裕的影响和空间溢出效应。研究发现:(1)地理特征和经济特征均会对旅游经济发展促进共同富裕的空间效应产生影响,其中经济特征影响更大;(2)旅游经济发展显著促进了共同富裕,既提升了总体富裕水平,又具有“分好蛋糕”的共享效应,但目前“做大蛋糕”效应更强,而且旅游经济的溢出效应在缩小地区经济差异方面尚有较大提升空间。(3)旅游经济发展水平会影响产业结构合理化对共同富裕的作用系数,呈倒“U”型的双门槛特征,旅游经济发展水平较低时,要积极推进产业结构转型升级,但当旅游经济发展到一定水平后,要注重产业结构转型的合理化,避免产业空心化。
沈庆琼, 欧伟强, 钟晓燕. 旅游经济发展是否促进了共同富裕——基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析[J]. 中国生态旅游, 2022, 12(5): 736-752.
Shen Qingqiong, Ou Weiqiang, Zhong Xiaoyan. Has the development of tourism economy promoted common prosperity?Empirical analysis based on Chinese interprovincial panel data[J]. ECOTOURISM, 2022, 12(5): 736-752.
表1
变量的描述性统计结果
变量 | 经济含义 | 均值 | 标准差 | 最小 | 最大 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
CP | 共同富裕 | 0.451 | 0.187 | 0.000 | 0.906 |
OP | 总体富裕 | 0.472 | 0.177 | 0.000 | 0.971 |
SP | 共享富裕 | 0.454 | 0.216 | 0.000 | 1.000 |
TED | 旅游经济发展 | 6.770 | 1.579 | 2.050 | 9.623 |
RIS | 产业结构合理化 | 0.637 | 0.444 | 0.032 | 3.347 |
OPEN | 对外开放程度 | 0.312 | 0.389 | 0.013 | 1.711 |
CAP | 固定资本投入 | 0.638 | 0.294 | 0.210 | 1.597 |
GOV | 政府干预 | 0.211 | 0.108 | 0.063 | 0.758 |
表4
模型选择参数(W3)
解释 变量 | 共同富裕(CP) | 总体富裕(OP) | 共享富裕(SP) | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
随机效应 | 时间 固定 | 个体 固定 | 双向 固定 | 随机 效应 | 时间 固定 | 个体 固定 | 双向 固定 | 随机 效应 | 时间 固定 | 个体 固定 | 双向 固定 | |||
模型1 | 模型2 | 模型3 | 模型4 | 模型5 | 模型6 | 模型7 | 模型8 | 模型9 | 模型10 | 模型11 | 模型12 | |||
TED | 0.009 | 0.006 | 0.008 | 0.012* | 0.019*** | 0.002 | 0.018*** | 0.021*** | 0.002 | 0.017** | -0.003 | 0.006 | ||
(0.007) | (0.006) | (0.007) | (0.006) | (0.003) | (0.004) | (0.003) | (0.003) | (0.012) | (0.008) | (0.012) | (0.012) | |||
RIS | 0.001 | -0.115*** | 0.005 | 0.009 | -0.010*** | -0.078*** | -0.009*** | -0.013*** | 0.010 | -0.118*** | 0.019 | 0.033** | ||
(0.009) | (0.011) | (0.009) | (0.008) | (0.004) | (0.007) | (0.003) | (0.003) | (0.016) | (0.015) | (0.016) | (0.015) | |||
OPEN | 0.032* | 0.135*** | 0.019 | 0.022 | 0.002 | 0.144*** | -0.002 | -0.007 | 0.079*** | 0.128*** | 0.051* | 0.058** | ||
(0.016) | (0.014) | (0.016) | (0.015) | (0.007) | (0.009) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.029) | (0.018) | (0.029) | (0.027) | |||
CAP | 0.038*** | -0.043* | 0.044*** | 0.029** | 0.003 | -0.052*** | 0.004 | 0.001 | 0.041* | -0.057** | 0.055** | 0.022 | ||
(0.013) | (0.022) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.005) | (0.014) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.025) | (0.029) | (0.024) | (0.023) | |||
GOV | -0.089 | -0.014 | -0.086 | -0.086* | -0.082*** | -0.008 | -0.082*** | -0.063*** | -0.007 | 0.092 | 0.010 | -0.031 | ||
(0.056) | (0.069) | (0.055) | (0.052) | (0.023) | (0.046) | (0.022) | (0.021) | (0.103) | (0.092) | (0.103) | (0.093) | |||
rho | 0.478*** | 0.300*** | 0.451*** | -0.138* | 0.721*** | 0.293*** | 0.724*** | 0.071 | 0.614*** | 0.220*** | 0.588*** | -0.142* | ||
(0.053) | (0.073) | (0.054) | (0.083) | (0.031) | (0.068) | (0.030) | (0.082) | (0.043) | (0.074) | (0.044) | (0.082) | |||
σ2 | 0.002*** | 0.006*** | 0.001*** | 0.001*** | 0.000*** | 0.003*** | 0.000*** | 0.000*** | 0.005*** | 0.011*** | 0.005*** | 0.004*** | ||
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.001) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |||
R2 | 0.399 | 0.816 | 0.306 | 0.543 | 0.695 | 0.702 | 0.684 | 0.701 | 0.190 | 0.570 | 0.003 | 0.261 | ||
Hausman | 57.650*** | 41.970*** | 90.450*** |
表5
静态空间杜宾模型的估计结果
解释 变量 | 共同富裕(CP) | 总体富裕(OP) | 共享富裕(SP) | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
地理特征权重 | 经济特征权重 | 地理特征权重 | 经济特征权重 | 地理特征权重 | 经济特征权重 | |||||||||
W0 | W1 | W2 | W3 | W0 | W1 | W2 | W3 | W0 | W1 | W2 | W3 | |||
模型13 | 模型14 | 模型15 | 模型16 | 模型17 | 模型18 | 模型19 | 模型20 | 模型21 | 模型22 | 模型23 | 模型24 | |||
TED | 0.011* | 0.012* | 0.015** | 0.012* | 0.023*** | 0.021*** | 0.028*** | 0.021*** | -0.000 | 0.006 | 0.007 | 0.006 | ||
(0.006) | (0.006) | (0.007) | (0.006) | (0.003) | (0.003) | (0.003) | (0.003) | (0.011) | (0.012) | (0.013) | (0.012) | |||
RIS | 0.008 | 0.010 | -0.002 | 0.009 | -0.013*** | -0.013*** | -0.013*** | -0.013*** | 0.028* | 0.036** | 0.009 | 0.033** | ||
(0.008) | (0.008) | (0.008) | (0.008) | (0.003) | (0.003) | (0.004) | (0.003) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | |||
OPEN | 0.011 | 0.022 | 0.031* | 0.022 | -0.016** | -0.006 | 0.001 | -0.007 | 0.055* | 0.056** | 0.070** | 0.058** | ||
(0.017) | (0.015) | (0.018) | (0.015) | (0.007) | (0.006) | (0.007) | (0.006) | (0.030) | (0.027) | (0.031) | (0.027) | |||
CAP | 0.038*** | 0.025* | 0.036*** | 0.029** | 0.001 | -0.001 | -0.004 | 0.001 | 0.044* | 0.016 | 0.052** | 0.022 | ||
(0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.023) | (0.023) | (0.023) | (0.023) | |||
GOV | -0.137*** | -0.080 | -0.101** | -0.086* | -0.048** | -0.057*** | -0.019 | -0.063*** | -0.157* | -0.019 | -0.089 | -0.031 | ||
(0.051) | (0.051) | (0.044) | (0.052) | (0.022) | (0.021) | (0.018) | (0.021) | (0.091) | (0.091) | (0.079) | (0.093) | |||
WTED | 0.038*** | 0.061*** | -0.003 | 0.051*** | -0.006 | 0.024*** | -0.009 | 0.026*** | 0.077*** | 0.092*** | 0.037 | 0.077** | ||
(0.012) | (0.018) | (0.014) | (0.019) | (0.005) | (0.008) | (0.006) | (0.008) | (0.021) | (0.031) | (0.025) | (0.034) | |||
WRIS | 0.027 | -0.025 | -0.008 | -0.028 | -0.025*** | -0.023** | -0.001 | -0.032** | 0.087*** | -0.019 | 0.002 | 0.003 | ||
(0.017) | (0.024) | (0.011) | (0.035) | (0.007) | (0.010) | (0.005) | (0.014) | (0.030) | (0.043) | (0.019) | (0.062) | |||
WOPEN | 0.076** | 0.026 | 0.011 | 0.021 | 0.033** | -0.013 | -0.007 | -0.014 | 0.070 | 0.028 | 0.003 | 0.029 | ||
(0.031) | (0.037) | (0.027) | (0.030) | (0.013) | (0.015) | (0.011) | (0.012) | (0.055) | (0.066) | (0.049) | (0.053) | |||
WCAP | -0.026 | -0.001 | 0.034 | 0.006 | 0.012 | 0.006 | -0.001 | 0.010 | -0.058 | -0.058 | 0.032 | -0.055 | ||
(0.023) | (0.032) | (0.021) | (0.036) | (0.010) | (0.013) | (0.009) | (0.015) | (0.041) | (0.057) | (0.037) | (0.065) | |||
WGOV | -0.045 | -0.085 | -0.152 | -0.101 | 0.079** | 0.050 | 0.213*** | 0.040 | -0.083 | -0.156 | -1.009*** | -0.187 | ||
(0.081) | (0.101) | (0.125) | (0.117) | (0.034) | (0.042) | (0.051) | (0.048) | (0.144) | (0.181) | (0.222) | (0.210) | |||
rho | 0.049 | -0.146* | -0.114** | -0.138* | 0.054 | 0.102 | -0.212*** | 0.071 | 0.076 | -0.159* | -0.034 | -0.142* | ||
(0.059) | (0.083) | (0.053) | (0.083) | (0.061) | (0.080) | (0.058) | (0.082) | (0.060) | (0.085) | (0.054) | (0.082) | |||
σ2 | 0.001*** | 0.001*** | 0.001*** | 0.001*** | 0.000*** | 0.000*** | 0.000*** | 0.000*** | 0.004*** | 0.004*** | 0.004*** | 0.004*** | ||
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |||
N | 567 | 567 | 567 | 567 | 567 | 567 | 567 | 567 | 567 | 567 | 567 | 567 | ||
R2 | 0.466 | 0.531 | 0.597 | 0.543 | 0.681 | 0.701 | 0.416 | 0.701 | 0.177 | 0.250 | 0.382 | 0.261 |
表6
动态空间杜宾模型的估计结果
解释 变量 | 共同富裕(CP) | 总体富裕(OP) | 共享富裕(SP) | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
地理特征权重 | 经济特征权重 | 地理特征权重 | 经济特征权重 | 地理特征权重 | 经济特征权重 | |||||||||
W0 | W1 | W2 | W3 | W0 | W1 | W2 | W3 | W0 | W1 | W2 | W3 | |||
模型25 | 模型26 | 模型27 | 模型28 | 模型29 | 模型30 | 模型31 | 模型32 | 模型33 | 模型34 | 模型35 | 模型36 | |||
TED | 0.013** | 0.014** | 0.017** | 0.014** | 0.023*** | 0.020*** | 0.027*** | 0.019*** | 0.010 | 0.018 | 0.013 | 0.016 | ||
(0.007) | (0.007) | (0.008) | (0.007) | (0.003) | (0.003) | (0.003) | (0.003) | (0.012) | (0.012) | (0.014) | (0.012) | |||
RIS | 0.015* | 0.018** | 0.004 | 0.018** | -0.011*** | -0.013*** | -0.013*** | -0.012*** | 0.027* | 0.037** | 0.020 | 0.035** | ||
(0.008) | (0.008) | (0.009) | (0.008) | (0.003) | (0.003) | (0.004) | (0.003) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.016) | (0.014) | |||
OPEN | 0.009 | 0.020 | 0.033* | 0.019 | -0.013* | -0.003 | 0.003 | -0.004 | 0.029 | 0.030 | 0.050 | 0.030 | ||
(0.017) | (0.015) | (0.018) | (0.015) | (0.007) | (0.006) | (0.007) | (0.006) | (0.029) | (0.027) | (0.031) | (0.027) | |||
CAP | 0.035*** | 0.024* | 0.036*** | 0.028** | -0.000 | -0.002 | -0.005 | 0.000 | 0.041* | 0.016 | 0.045* | 0.026 | ||
(0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.022) | (0.022) | (0.023) | (0.022) | |||
GOV | -0.135*** | -0.072 | -0.110** | -0.077 | -0.052** | -0.061*** | -0.019 | -0.067*** | -0.155* | -0.009 | -0.076 | -0.022 | ||
(0.051) | (0.051) | (0.045) | (0.052) | (0.022) | (0.021) | (0.019) | (0.021) | (0.089) | (0.089) | (0.081) | (0.091) | |||
WYi,t-1 | 0.102 | -0.291** | -0.222** | -0.328** | 0.015 | 0.253* | -0.386*** | 0.198 | 0.123 | -0.383*** | -0.021 | -0.329** | ||
(0.098) | (0.144) | (0.088) | (0.147) | (0.108) | (0.149) | (0.105) | (0.151) | (0.097) | (0.142) | (0.091) | (0.134) | |||
WTED | 0.056*** | 0.062*** | 0.002 | 0.050*** | -0.004 | 0.017** | -0.006 | 0.020** | 0.125*** | 0.120*** | 0.041 | 0.104*** | ||
(0.013) | (0.018) | (0.015) | (0.019) | (0.006) | (0.008) | (0.007) | (0.008) | (0.023) | (0.031) | (0.027) | (0.034) | |||
WRIS | 0.030* | -0.043* | -0.007 | -0.058 | -0.025*** | -0.020* | -0.009* | -0.031** | 0.082*** | -0.047 | 0.010 | -0.049 | ||
(0.017) | (0.024) | (0.011) | (0.036) | (0.007) | (0.011) | (0.005) | (0.015) | (0.029) | (0.042) | (0.020) | (0.062) | |||
WOPEN | 0.062** | 0.041 | 0.016 | 0.039 | 0.041*** | -0.003 | -0.004 | -0.006 | -0.004 | -0.033 | -0.003 | -0.025 | ||
(0.032) | (0.039) | (0.029) | (0.032) | (0.013) | (0.016) | (0.011) | (0.013) | (0.055) | (0.068) | (0.052) | (0.055) | |||
WCAP | -0.031 | 0.024 | 0.035 | 0.038 | 0.012 | 0.006 | 0.001 | 0.008 | -0.077** | -0.009 | 0.018 | 0.004 | ||
(0.023) | (0.032) | (0.021) | (0.037) | (0.009) | (0.013) | (0.009) | (0.014) | (0.039) | (0.055) | (0.037) | (0.063) | |||
WGOV | -0.085 | -0.104 | -0.237* | -0.143 | 0.061* | 0.061 | 0.202*** | 0.052 | -0.152 | -0.194 | -0.658*** | -0.289 | ||
(0.083) | (0.103) | (0.130) | (0.120) | (0.035) | (0.042) | (0.053) | (0.048) | (0.143) | (0.178) | (0.228) | (0.208) | |||
rho | 0.036 | 0.099 | 0.029 | 0.065 | 0.007 | 0.001 | 0.065 | 0.005 | 0.019 | 0.110 | 0.043 | 0.078 | ||
(0.072) | (0.095) | (0.065) | (0.095) | (0.074) | (0.097) | (0.070) | (0.097) | (0.073) | (0.097) | (0.068) | (0.094) | |||
σ2 | 0.001*** | 0.001*** | 0.001*** | 0.001*** | 0.000*** | 0.000*** | 0.000*** | 0.000*** | 0.004*** | 0.004*** | 0.004*** | 0.004*** | ||
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |||
R2 | 0.491 | 0.371 | 0.041 | 0.351 | 0.685 | 0.744 | 0.191 | 0.736 | 0.261 | 0.087 | 0.409 | 0.087 | ||
LogL | 1063 | 1061 | 1053 | 1057 | 1526 | 1534 | 1532 | 1538 | 765.1 | 758.1 | 750.1 | 754.9 | ||
AIC | -2101 | -2097 | -2080 | -2092 | -3026 | -3041 | -3037 | -3050 | -1504 | -1490 | -1474 | -1484 | ||
BIC | -2045 | -2041 | -2024 | -2044 | -2970 | -2986 | -2982 | -2994 | -1448 | -1434 | -1418 | -1428 |
表7
长期和短期溢出效应的估计结果
短期效应 | 长期效应 | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
共同富裕(CP) | 总体富裕(OP) | 共享富裕(SP) | 共同富裕(CP) | 总体富裕(OP) | 共享富裕(SP) | |||||||||
W2 | W3 | W2 | W3 | W2 | W3 | W2 | W3 | W2 | W3 | W2 | W3 | |||
直接 效应 | TED | 0.017** | 0.013** | 0.027*** | 0.019*** | 0.012 | 0.015 | 0.017** | 0.011 | 0.030*** | 0.020*** | 0.012 | 0.010 | |
(0.008) | (0.007) | (0.003) | (0.003) | (0.013) | (0.012) | (0.008) | (0.007) | (0.004) | (0.003) | (0.013) | (0.012) | |||
RIS | 0.005 | 0.019** | -0.012*** | -0.012*** | 0.021 | 0.037*** | 0.006 | 0.022*** | -0.012*** | -0.013*** | 0.021 | 0.040*** | ||
(0.009) | (0.008) | (0.004) | (0.003) | (0.015) | (0.014) | (0.008) | (0.008) | (0.004) | (0.003) | (0.015) | (0.015) | |||
OPEN | 0.033* | 0.019 | 0.004 | -0.004 | 0.050 | 0.030 | 0.033* | 0.017 | 0.004 | -0.004 | 0.050 | 0.032 | ||
(0.017) | (0.015) | (0.007) | (0.006) | (0.031) | (0.026) | (0.018) | (0.015) | (0.009) | (0.006) | (0.031) | (0.027) | |||
CAP | 0.036*** | 0.028** | -0.005 | 0.000 | 0.045** | 0.026 | 0.034*** | 0.027** | -0.006 | 0.000 | 0.045** | 0.027 | ||
(0.012) | (0.012) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.022) | (0.021) | (0.012) | (0.012) | (0.006) | (0.005) | (0.022) | (0.022) | |||
GOV | -0.110** | -0.074 | -0.022 | -0.066*** | -0.064 | -0.015 | -0.096** | -0.069 | -0.047** | -0.065*** | -0.061 | -0.001 | ||
(0.045) | (0.052) | (0.019) | (0.021) | (0.081) | (0.091) | (0.045) | (0.056) | (0.022) | (0.021) | (0.081) | (0.098) | |||
间接 效应 | TED | 0.003 | 0.047** | -0.007 | 0.020** | 0.040 | 0.097*** | -0.001 | 0.035** | -0.015** | 0.030** | 0.039 | 0.075*** | |
(0.016) | (0.020) | (0.007) | (0.009) | (0.027) | (0.034) | (0.014) | (0.016) | (0.006) | (0.012) | (0.026) | (0.027) | |||
RIS | -0.007 | -0.058* | -0.008 | -0.032** | 0.009 | -0.052 | -0.007 | -0.052** | -0.003 | -0.042** | 0.009 | -0.051 | ||
(0.012) | (0.032) | (0.005) | (0.015) | (0.020) | (0.055) | (0.010) | (0.026) | (0.004) | (0.019) | (0.019) | (0.045) | |||
OPEN | 0.020 | 0.038 | -0.003 | -0.005 | -0.002 | -0.021 | 0.011 | 0.026 | -0.004 | -0.008 | -0.003 | -0.025 | ||
(0.028) | (0.030) | (0.011) | (0.012) | (0.050) | (0.052) | (0.027) | (0.025) | (0.011) | (0.015) | (0.050) | (0.043) | |||
CAP | 0.037 | 0.035 | 0.001 | 0.009 | 0.016 | 0.003 | 0.025 | 0.021 | 0.003 | 0.011 | 0.015 | -0.004 | ||
(0.023) | (0.038) | (0.009) | (0.015) | (0.039) | (0.063) | (0.020) | (0.031) | (0.008) | (0.019) | (0.038) | (0.052) | |||
GOV | -0.249* | -0.140 | 0.195*** | 0.048 | -0.641*** | -0.286 | -0.195 | -0.094 | 0.174*** | 0.042 | -0.631*** | -0.228 | ||
(0.140) | (0.123) | (0.051) | (0.050) | (0.232) | (0.209) | (0.121) | (0.105) | (0.045) | (0.059) | (0.228) | (0.180) | |||
总 效应 | TED | 0.019 | 0.060*** | 0.020*** | 0.040*** | 0.052** | 0.111*** | 0.016 | 0.046*** | 0.015*** | 0.050*** | 0.051** | 0.085*** | |
(0.015) | (0.021) | (0.006) | (0.010) | (0.025) | (0.036) | (0.013) | (0.016) | (0.004) | (0.013) | (0.025) | (0.027) | |||
RIS | -0.002 | -0.039 | -0.020*** | -0.044*** | 0.030 | -0.015 | -0.002 | -0.030 | -0.015*** | -0.055*** | 0.030 | -0.011 | ||
(0.017) | (0.033) | (0.007) | (0.015) | (0.027) | (0.056) | (0.014) | (0.025) | (0.005) | (0.020) | (0.027) | (0.042) | |||
OPEN | 0.053** | 0.057* | 0.000 | -0.009 | 0.048 | 0.009 | 0.043** | 0.043* | 0.000 | -0.011 | 0.047 | 0.007 | ||
(0.025) | (0.032) | (0.009) | (0.013) | (0.042) | (0.054) | (0.020) | (0.024) | (0.006) | (0.017) | (0.041) | (0.041) | |||
CAP | 0.073*** | 0.064 | -0.004 | 0.009 | 0.061 | 0.030 | 0.059*** | 0.049 | -0.003 | 0.011 | 0.059 | 0.022 | ||
(0.026) | (0.039) | (0.009) | (0.016) | (0.043) | (0.066) | (0.021) | (0.030) | (0.007) | (0.020) | (0.042) | (0.050) | |||
GOV | -0.359** | -0.214* | 0.173*** | -0.018 | -0.705*** | -0.301 | -0.291** | -0.163** | 0.127*** | -0.022 | -0.691*** | -0.229* | ||
(0.153) | (0.110) | (0.054) | (0.044) | (0.251) | (0.183) | (0.123) | (0.082) | (0.040) | (0.056) | (0.246) | (0.138) |
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