旅游经济发展是否促进了共同富裕——基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析

doi:10.12342/zgstly.20220090

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

学界对旅游经济发展是否推进了共同富裕尚存在争议。文章运用中国1999-2019年省际面板数据，采用动态空间杜宾模型，采用地理和经济特征双重视角构造4种空间权重矩阵，考察旅游经济发展对共同富裕的影响和空间溢出效应。研究发现：（1）地理特征和经济特征均会对旅游经济发展促进共同富裕的空间效应产生影响，其中经济特征影响更大；（2）旅游经济发展显著促进了共同富裕，既提升了总体富裕水平，又具有“分好蛋糕”的共享效应，但目前“做大蛋糕”效应更强，而且旅游经济的溢出效应在缩小地区经济差异方面尚有较大提升空间。（3）旅游经济发展水平会影响产业结构合理化对共同富裕的作用系数，呈倒“U”型的双门槛特征，旅游经济发展水平较低时，要积极推进产业结构转型升级，但当旅游经济发展到一定水平后，要注重产业结构转型的合理化，避免产业空心化。

关键词: 旅游经济, 共同富裕, 空间溢出, 门槛效应, 面板数据

Abstract:

It is still controversial whether the development of tourism economy can promote common prosperity. Based on the inter-provincial panel data of China from 1999 to 2019, this paper adopts the dynamic spatial Durbin model to construct four spatial weight matrices with the dual perspectives of geographical and economic characteristics, and investigates the impact of tourism economic development on regional common prosperity and the spatial spillover effect. The results show that: (1) Both geographical and economic characteristics have impacts on the spatial effect of tourism economic development promoting common prosperity, yet economic characteristics have a greater impact. (2) The development of tourism economy has significantly promoted the development of common prosperity, which not only improves the overall level of prosperity, but also has the sharing effect that contributes to equality. However, the effect of growth, “making the cake bigger”, is stronger at present, and the spillover effect of tourism economy still has room for improvement in narrowing regional economic gap. (3) Tourism economic development level affects the industrial structure rationalization factor, which shows an inverted “U” shaped double threshold feature. We should actively promote the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure when the tourism economic development is at low level; and pay attention to the rationalization of industrial structure transformation and avoid industrial hollowing when the tourism economic development reached a higher level.

Key words: tourism economy, common prosperity, space spillover, threshold effect, panel data

沈庆琼, 欧伟强, 钟晓燕. 旅游经济发展是否促进了共同富裕——基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析[J]. 中国生态旅游, 2022, 12(5): 736-752.

Shen Qingqiong, Ou Weiqiang, Zhong Xiaoyan. Has the development of tourism economy promoted common prosperity?Empirical analysis based on Chinese interprovincial panel data[J]. ECOTOURISM, 2022, 12(5): 736-752.

图/表 12

图1

表1

图2

表2

表3

表4

表5

静态空间杜宾模型的估计结果

解释变量	共同富裕（CP）				总体富裕（OP）				共享富裕（SP）
	地理特征权重		经济特征权重		地理特征权重		经济特征权重		地理特征权重		经济特征权重
	W₀	W₁	W₂	W₃	W₀	W₁	W₂	W₃	W₀	W₁	W₂	W₃
	模型13	模型14	模型15	模型16	模型17	模型18	模型19	模型20	模型21	模型22	模型23	模型24
TED	0.011^*	0.012^*	0.015^**	0.012^*	0.023^***	0.021^***	0.028^***	0.021^***	-0.000	0.006	0.007	0.006
TED	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.011)	(0.012)	(0.013)	(0.012)
RIS	0.008	0.010	-0.002	0.009	-0.013^***	-0.013^***	-0.013^***	-0.013^***	0.028^*	0.036^**	0.009	0.033^**
RIS	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)
OPEN	0.011	0.022	0.031^*	0.022	-0.016^**	-0.006	0.001	-0.007	0.055^*	0.056^**	0.070^**	0.058^**
OPEN	(0.017)	(0.015)	(0.018)	(0.015)	(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.030)	(0.027)	(0.031)	(0.027)
CAP	0.038^***	0.025^*	0.036^***	0.029^**	0.001	-0.001	-0.004	0.001	0.044^*	0.016	0.052^**	0.022
CAP	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.023)
GOV	-0.137^***	-0.080	-0.101^**	-0.086^*	-0.048^**	-0.057^***	-0.019	-0.063^***	-0.157^*	-0.019	-0.089	-0.031
GOV	(0.051)	(0.051)	(0.044)	(0.052)	(0.022)	(0.021)	(0.018)	(0.021)	(0.091)	(0.091)	(0.079)	(0.093)
WTED	0.038^***	0.061^***	-0.003	0.051^***	-0.006	0.024^***	-0.009	0.026^***	0.077^***	0.092^***	0.037	0.077^**
WTED	(0.012)	(0.018)	(0.014)	(0.019)	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.006)	(0.008)	(0.021)	(0.031)	(0.025)	(0.034)
WRIS	0.027	-0.025	-0.008	-0.028	-0.025^***	-0.023^**	-0.001	-0.032^**	0.087^***	-0.019	0.002	0.003
WRIS	(0.017)	(0.024)	(0.011)	(0.035)	(0.007)	(0.010)	(0.005)	(0.014)	(0.030)	(0.043)	(0.019)	(0.062)
WOPEN	0.076^**	0.026	0.011	0.021	0.033^**	-0.013	-0.007	-0.014	0.070	0.028	0.003	0.029
WOPEN	(0.031)	(0.037)	(0.027)	(0.030)	(0.013)	(0.015)	(0.011)	(0.012)	(0.055)	(0.066)	(0.049)	(0.053)
WCAP	-0.026	-0.001	0.034	0.006	0.012	0.006	-0.001	0.010	-0.058	-0.058	0.032	-0.055
WCAP	(0.023)	(0.032)	(0.021)	(0.036)	(0.010)	(0.013)	(0.009)	(0.015)	(0.041)	(0.057)	(0.037)	(0.065)
WGOV	-0.045	-0.085	-0.152	-0.101	0.079^**	0.050	0.213^***	0.040	-0.083	-0.156	-1.009^***	-0.187
WGOV	(0.081)	(0.101)	(0.125)	(0.117)	(0.034)	(0.042)	(0.051)	(0.048)	(0.144)	(0.181)	(0.222)	(0.210)
rho	0.049	-0.146^*	-0.114^**	-0.138^*	0.054	0.102	-0.212^***	0.071	0.076	-0.159^*	-0.034	-0.142^*
rho	(0.059)	(0.083)	(0.053)	(0.083)	(0.061)	(0.080)	(0.058)	(0.082)	(0.060)	(0.085)	(0.054)	(0.082)
σ²	0.001^***	0.001^***	0.001^***	0.001^***	0.000^***	0.000^***	0.000^***	0.000^***	0.004^***	0.004^***	0.004^***	0.004^***
σ²	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
N	567	567	567	567	567	567	567	567	567	567	567	567
R²	0.466	0.531	0.597	0.543	0.681	0.701	0.416	0.701	0.177	0.250	0.382	0.261

表5

表6

动态空间杜宾模型的估计结果

解释变量	共同富裕（CP）				总体富裕（OP）				共享富裕（SP）
	地理特征权重		经济特征权重		地理特征权重		经济特征权重		地理特征权重		经济特征权重
	W₀	W₁	W₂	W₃	W₀	W₁	W₂	W₃	W₀	W₁	W₂	W₃
	模型25	模型26	模型27	模型28	模型29	模型30	模型31	模型32	模型33	模型34	模型35	模型36
TED	0.013^**	0.014^**	0.017^**	0.014^**	0.023^***	0.020^***	0.027^***	0.019^***	0.010	0.018	0.013	0.016
TED	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.008)	(0.007)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.014)	(0.012)
RIS	0.015^*	0.018^**	0.004	0.018^**	-0.011^***	-0.013^***	-0.013^***	-0.012^***	0.027^*	0.037^**	0.020	0.035^**
RIS	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.009)	(0.008)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.016)	(0.014)
OPEN	0.009	0.020	0.033^*	0.019	-0.013^*	-0.003	0.003	-0.004	0.029	0.030	0.050	0.030
OPEN	(0.017)	(0.015)	(0.018)	(0.015)	(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.029)	(0.027)	(0.031)	(0.027)
CAP	0.035^***	0.024^*	0.036^***	0.028^**	-0.000	-0.002	-0.005	0.000	0.041^*	0.016	0.045^*	0.026
CAP	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.023)	(0.022)
GOV	-0.135^***	-0.072	-0.110^**	-0.077	-0.052^**	-0.061^***	-0.019	-0.067^***	-0.155^*	-0.009	-0.076	-0.022
GOV	(0.051)	(0.051)	(0.045)	(0.052)	(0.022)	(0.021)	(0.019)	(0.021)	(0.089)	(0.089)	(0.081)	(0.091)
WY_i,t-1	0.102	-0.291^**	-0.222^**	-0.328^**	0.015	0.253^*	-0.386^***	0.198	0.123	-0.383^***	-0.021	-0.329^**
WY_i,t-1	(0.098)	(0.144)	(0.088)	(0.147)	(0.108)	(0.149)	(0.105)	(0.151)	(0.097)	(0.142)	(0.091)	(0.134)
WTED	0.056^***	0.062^***	0.002	0.050^***	-0.004	0.017**	-0.006	0.020^**	0.125^***	0.120^***	0.041	0.104^***
WTED	(0.013)	(0.018)	(0.015)	(0.019)	(0.006)	(0.008)	(0.007)	(0.008)	(0.023)	(0.031)	(0.027)	(0.034)
WRIS	0.030^*	-0.043^*	-0.007	-0.058	-0.025^***	-0.020^*	-0.009^*	-0.031^**	0.082^***	-0.047	0.010	-0.049
WRIS	(0.017)	(0.024)	(0.011)	(0.036)	(0.007)	(0.011)	(0.005)	(0.015)	(0.029)	(0.042)	(0.020)	(0.062)
WOPEN	0.062^**	0.041	0.016	0.039	0.041^***	-0.003	-0.004	-0.006	-0.004	-0.033	-0.003	-0.025
WOPEN	(0.032)	(0.039)	(0.029)	(0.032)	(0.013)	(0.016)	(0.011)	(0.013)	(0.055)	(0.068)	(0.052)	(0.055)
WCAP	-0.031	0.024	0.035	0.038	0.012	0.006	0.001	0.008	-0.077^**	-0.009	0.018	0.004
WCAP	(0.023)	(0.032)	(0.021)	(0.037)	(0.009)	(0.013)	(0.009)	(0.014)	(0.039)	(0.055)	(0.037)	(0.063)
WGOV	-0.085	-0.104	-0.237*	-0.143	0.061^*	0.061	0.202^***	0.052	-0.152	-0.194	-0.658^***	-0.289
WGOV	(0.083)	(0.103)	(0.130)	(0.120)	(0.035)	(0.042)	(0.053)	(0.048)	(0.143)	(0.178)	(0.228)	(0.208)
rho	0.036	0.099	0.029	0.065	0.007	0.001	0.065	0.005	0.019	0.110	0.043	0.078
rho	(0.072)	(0.095)	(0.065)	(0.095)	(0.074)	(0.097)	(0.070)	(0.097)	(0.073)	(0.097)	(0.068)	(0.094)
σ²	0.001^***	0.001^***	0.001^***	0.001^***	0.000^***	0.000^***	0.000^***	0.000^***	0.004^***	0.004^***	0.004^***	0.004^***
σ²	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
R²	0.491	0.371	0.041	0.351	0.685	0.744	0.191	0.736	0.261	0.087	0.409	0.087
LogL	1063	1061	1053	1057	1526	1534	1532	1538	765.1	758.1	750.1	754.9
AIC	-2101	-2097	-2080	-2092	-3026	-3041	-3037	-3050	-1504	-1490	-1474	-1484
BIC	-2045	-2041	-2024	-2044	-2970	-2986	-2982	-2994	-1448	-1434	-1418	-1428

表6

表7

长期和短期溢出效应的估计结果

		短期效应						长期效应
		共同富裕（CP）		总体富裕（OP）		共享富裕（SP）		共同富裕（CP）		总体富裕（OP）		共享富裕（SP）
		W₂	W₃	W₂	W₃	W₂	W₃	W₂	W₃	W₂	W₃	W₂	W₃
直接效应	TED	0.017^**	0.013^**	0.027^***	0.019^***	0.012	0.015	0.017^**	0.011	0.030^***	0.020^***	0.012	0.010
	TED	(0.008)	(0.007)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.013)	(0.012)	(0.008)	(0.007)	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.013)	(0.012)
	RIS	0.005	0.019^**	-0.012^***	-0.012^***	0.021	0.037^***	0.006	0.022^***	-0.012^***	-0.013^***	0.021	0.040^***
	RIS	(0.009)	(0.008)	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.015)	(0.014)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.015)	(0.015)
	OPEN	0.033^*	0.019	0.004	-0.004	0.050	0.030	0.033^*	0.017	0.004	-0.004	0.050	0.032
	OPEN	(0.017)	(0.015)	(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.031)	(0.026)	(0.018)	(0.015)	(0.009)	(0.006)	(0.031)	(0.027)
	CAP	0.036^***	0.028^**	-0.005	0.000	0.045^**	0.026	0.034^***	0.027^**	-0.006	0.000	0.045^**	0.027
	CAP	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.022)	(0.021)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.006)	(0.005)	(0.022)	(0.022)
	GOV	-0.110^**	-0.074	-0.022	-0.066^***	-0.064	-0.015	-0.096^**	-0.069	-0.047^**	-0.065^***	-0.061	-0.001
	GOV	(0.045)	(0.052)	(0.019)	(0.021)	(0.081)	(0.091)	(0.045)	(0.056)	(0.022)	(0.021)	(0.081)	(0.098)
间接效应	TED	0.003	0.047^**	-0.007	0.020^**	0.040	0.097^***	-0.001	0.035^**	-0.015^**	0.030^**	0.039	0.075^***
	TED	(0.016)	(0.020)	(0.007)	(0.009)	(0.027)	(0.034)	(0.014)	(0.016)	(0.006)	(0.012)	(0.026)	(0.027)
	RIS	-0.007	-0.058^*	-0.008	-0.032^**	0.009	-0.052	-0.007	-0.052^**	-0.003	-0.042^**	0.009	-0.051
	RIS	(0.012)	(0.032)	(0.005)	(0.015)	(0.020)	(0.055)	(0.010)	(0.026)	(0.004)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.045)
	OPEN	0.020	0.038	-0.003	-0.005	-0.002	-0.021	0.011	0.026	-0.004	-0.008	-0.003	-0.025
	OPEN	(0.028)	(0.030)	(0.011)	(0.012)	(0.050)	(0.052)	(0.027)	(0.025)	(0.011)	(0.015)	(0.050)	(0.043)
	CAP	0.037	0.035	0.001	0.009	0.016	0.003	0.025	0.021	0.003	0.011	0.015	-0.004
	CAP	(0.023)	(0.038)	(0.009)	(0.015)	(0.039)	(0.063)	(0.020)	(0.031)	(0.008)	(0.019)	(0.038)	(0.052)
	GOV	-0.249^*	-0.140	0.195^***	0.048	-0.641^***	-0.286	-0.195	-0.094	0.174^***	0.042	-0.631^***	-0.228
	GOV	(0.140)	(0.123)	(0.051)	(0.050)	(0.232)	(0.209)	(0.121)	(0.105)	(0.045)	(0.059)	(0.228)	(0.180)
总效应	TED	0.019	0.060^***	0.020^***	0.040^***	0.052^**	0.111^***	0.016	0.046^***	0.015^***	0.050^***	0.051^**	0.085^***
	TED	(0.015)	(0.021)	(0.006)	(0.010)	(0.025)	(0.036)	(0.013)	(0.016)	(0.004)	(0.013)	(0.025)	(0.027)
	RIS	-0.002	-0.039	-0.020^***	-0.044^***	0.030	-0.015	-0.002	-0.030	-0.015^***	-0.055^***	0.030	-0.011
	RIS	(0.017)	(0.033)	(0.007)	(0.015)	(0.027)	(0.056)	(0.014)	(0.025)	(0.005)	(0.020)	(0.027)	(0.042)
	OPEN	0.053^**	0.057^*	0.000	-0.009	0.048	0.009	0.043^**	0.043^*	0.000	-0.011	0.047	0.007
	OPEN	(0.025)	(0.032)	(0.009)	(0.013)	(0.042)	(0.054)	(0.020)	(0.024)	(0.006)	(0.017)	(0.041)	(0.041)
	CAP	0.073^***	0.064	-0.004	0.009	0.061	0.030	0.059^***	0.049	-0.003	0.011	0.059	0.022
	CAP	(0.026)	(0.039)	(0.009)	(0.016)	(0.043)	(0.066)	(0.021)	(0.030)	(0.007)	(0.020)	(0.042)	(0.050)
	GOV	-0.359^**	-0.214*	0.173^***	-0.018	-0.705^***	-0.301	-0.291^**	-0.163^**	0.127^***	-0.022	-0.691^***	-0.229^*
	GOV	(0.153)	(0.110)	(0.054)	(0.044)	(0.251)	(0.183)	(0.123)	(0.082)	(0.040)	(0.056)	(0.246)	(0.138)

表7

表8

表9

图3

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变量	经济含义	均值	标准差	最小	最大
CP	共同富裕	0.451	0.187	0.000	0.906
OP	总体富裕	0.472	0.177	0.000	0.971
SP	共享富裕	0.454	0.216	0.000	1.000
TED	旅游经济发展	6.770	1.579	2.050	9.623
RIS	产业结构合理化	0.637	0.444	0.032	3.347
OPEN	对外开放程度	0.312	0.389	0.013	1.711
CAP	固定资本投入	0.638	0.294	0.210	1.597
GOV	政府干预	0.211	0.108	0.063	0.758

变量	TED	RIS	OPEN	CAP	GOV
VIF值	1.70	1.73	1.93	3.16	2.38
容差	0.59	0.58	0.52	0.32	0.42

	LM检验		稳健性LM检验		LR检验		Wald检验
	检验值	p值	检验值	p值	检验值	p值	检验值	p值
空间自回归模型（SAR）	632.729	0.000	164.232	0.000	18.400	0.003	10.770	0.056
空间误差模型（SEM）	540.250	0.000	71.753	0.000	18.280	0.003	19.510	0.002

门槛变量	模型检验	门槛估计值	F值	P值	BS次数	临界值1%	临界值5%	临界值10%
旅游经济发展	单一门槛	7.848	71.480^***	0.000	300	28.960	35.109	51.847
	双重门槛	门槛1：7.582 门槛2：8.246	22.100^*	0.077	300	20.367	27.324	40.790
	三重门槛	5.323	7.910	0.870	300	31.854	37.907	48.878

解释变量	门槛变量	系数	T值	P值
产业结构合理化	TED ≤ 7.44	β₁= -0.039^***	-3.53	0.000
	7.44<TED ≤ 8.24	β₂= 0.038^**	2.15	0.032
	TED>8.24	β₃= 0.186^***	8.00	0.000