环长株潭城市群旅游产业韧性时空演变研究

doi:10.12342/zgstly.20220157

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

旅游产业的发展受外界环境的影响很大，其恢复力、反弹力和创新力成为了社会的关注焦点。基于韧性理论和系统论，从经济、社会、生态和旅游四大方面构建旅游产业韧性综合评价指标体系，综合运用熵值法和德尔菲法、新木桶模型、核密度估计、空间自相关指数等方法，评价环长株潭城市群2011—2020年旅游产业韧性的时空演变特征。结果表明：（1）研究期内环长株潭城市群旅游产业韧性水平呈波动上升态势，但整体水平偏低，各子系统之间韧性差异较大，其中，旅游子系统和经济子系统韧性较高，生态子系统韧性最低；（2）城市群旅游产业韧性整体呈“东高西低”逐级递减的空间格局，存在俱乐部收敛态势；（3）城市群内部的8个城市旅游产业韧性差异显著，空间负相关性较为明显，长沙对城市群旅游产业发展的虹吸效应减弱，对邻近城市的辐射效应增强。建议提升环长株潭城市群旅游资源多样性、丰富性和旅游要素质量，发展旅游新业态，构建区域协调发展合作机制，以促进区域旅游业高质量发展。

关键词: 韧性, 旅游产业, 时空特征, 空间自相关, 新冠肺炎疫情, 环长株潭城市群

Abstract:

The tourism industry has been greatly impacted by the epidemic, and the resilience, rebound and innovation of the tourism industry have received wide attention from the public. Based on the resilience theory and system theory, a comprehensive evaluation index system of tourism industry resilience was constructed from four aspects: economy, society, ecology and tourism. Entropy method, Delphi method, new barrel model, kernel density estimation, spatial autocorrelation index and other methods were used in this research to evaluate the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of tourism industry resilience in the Chang-Zhu-Tan-Rim city clusters from 2011 to 2020. The results show that: (1) In the period of the research, the resilience level of the tourism industry in the study area is generally low and shows a trend of fluctuating upward. Resilience differs greatly between the subsystems, among which the tourism and economic subsystems have higher resilience and the ecological subsystem has the lowest resilience. (2) In terms of spatial pattern, the toughness of the tourism industry in the city clusters shows a steady pattern of "high in the east and low in the west", with a trend of club convergence. (3) Within the city clusters, there is a significant difference in the resilience of the tourism industry in the eight cities, and the spatial negative correlation is significant. The siphon effect of Changsha on the development of the tourism industry in the city clusters is weakened, while the radiation effect on the neighboring cities is enhanced. It is suggested to enhance the diversity and richness of tourism resources and the quality of tourism elements, develop new forms of tourism business and strengthen regional coordination and development cooperation mechanism, so as to promote the high-quality development of regional tourism.

Key words: resilience, tourism industry, spatio-temporal characteristics, spatial autocorrelation, COVID-19, Chang-Zhu-Tan-Rim city clusters

王静依, 李姣龙, 何天祥, 邓艳. 环长株潭城市群旅游产业韧性时空演变研究[J]. 中国生态旅游, 2023, 13(2): 252-267.

Wang Jingyi, Li Jiaolong, He Tianxiang, Deng Yan. Spatial and temporal evolution of tourism industry resilience in the Chang-Zhu-Tan-Rim city clusters[J]. ECOTOURISM, 2023, 13(2): 252-267.

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目标层	子系统层	准则层	指标层	熵权重	主观权重	综合权重
旅游产业韧性	经济韧性	状态	地区生产总值（X₁）	0.059	0.15	0.204
		状态	城镇居民人均可支配收入（X₂）	0.031
		响应	产业结构高级化（X₃）	0.012
			固定资产增长率（X₄）	0.034
			财政支出中科技支出占比（X₅）	0.049
			每万人专利申请数（X₆）	0.072
	社会韧性	状态	游客与居民比（X₇）	0.034	0.15	0.174
		状态	国内游客占第三产业从业人数比（X₈）	0.031
		响应	财政自给率（X₉）	0.030
			每万人互联网宽带用户数（X₁₀）	0.071
			每万人医疗卫生机构人数（X₁₁）	0.032
	生态韧性	状态	森林覆盖率（X₁₂）	0.19	0.20	0.127
			建成区绿化覆盖率（X₁₃）	0.010
			人均公园绿地面积（X₁₄）	0.020
		响应	污水处理率（X₁₅）	0.008
		响应	一般工业固体废物综合利用率（X₁₆）	0.011
	旅游资源要素韧性	状态	星级宾馆总数（X₁₇）	0.030	0.25	0.230
			旅游景区企业数（X₁₈）	0.031
			国内旅游人数增长率（X₁₉）	0.012
		响应	旅游资源禀赋多样性指数（X₂₀）	0.020
			旅游业从业人数（X₂₁）	0.070
			旅游固定资产投资（X₂₂）	0.042
	旅游产业结构韧性	状态	旅游总收入占GDP比重（X₂₃）	0.031	0.25	0.265
			旅游经济密度（X₂₄）	0.061
			旅游业劳动生产率（X₂₅）	0.040
		响应	旅游产业多样化指数（X₂₆）	0.018
			每万人旅游本科在校大学生数（X₂₇）	0.083
			政府对旅游新业态支持力度（X₂₈）	0.039

年份	高-高（H-H）	低-高（L-H）	低-低（L-L）	高-低（H-L）
2011年	株洲	湘潭、岳阳、益阳、娄底	衡阳、常德	长沙
2014年	株洲	湘潭、岳阳、益阳、娄底	衡阳、常德	长沙
2017年	株洲、湘潭	岳阳、娄底	衡阳、常德、益阳	长沙
2020年	株洲、湘潭	岳阳、娄底	衡阳、常德、益阳	长沙