高质量发展下中国旅游业“双碳”目标：评估预测、主要挑战与实现路径

doi:10.12342/zgstly.20210084

中国生态旅游 ›› 2021, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (4): 471-497.doi: 10.12342/zgstly.20210084

• 前沿探讨 • 下一篇

高质量发展下中国旅游业“双碳”目标：评估预测、主要挑战与实现路径

唐承财¹(), 查建平²^,^*(), 章杰宽³, 陶玉国⁴, 王立国⁵, 王露¹, 韩莹¹

1.北京第二外国语学院旅游科学学院,北京 100024
2.四川大学旅游学院,成都 610065
3.桂林旅游学院东盟旅游研究基地,桂林 541000
4.江苏师范大学历史文化与旅游学院,徐州 221116
5.江西农业大学国土资源与环境学院,南昌 330045

收稿日期:2021-08-07 修回日期:2021-08-20 出版日期:2021-08-28 发布日期:2021-11-09
通讯作者: * 查建平（1986-）,男,博士（后）,教授,主要从事生态旅游,旅游经济、文旅大数据等相关研究。E-mail: jianping_zha@hotmail.com。其他作者按撰写内容排序,为共同第二作者。
作者简介:唐承财（1982-）,男,博士（后）,教授,硕士生导师,青海省“高端创新人才千人计划”拔尖人才,主要从事生态旅游、低碳旅游、乡村旅游等相关研究。E-mail: tcc5808@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(42071199);国家自然科学基金项目(41571131);教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(18YJA630102);教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(21YJAZH085);国家社会科学基金艺术学重大项目(20ZD02)

The goal of China's tourism industry carbon peak and neutrality (dual-carbon) in the context of high-quality development: Evaluation and prediction, major challenges, and approach

TANG Chengcai¹(), ZHA Jianping²^,^*(), ZHANG Jiekuan³, TAO Yuguo⁴, WANG Liguo⁵, WANG Lu¹, HAN Ying¹

1. School of Tourism Sciences, Beijing International Studies University, Beijing 100024, China
2. School of Tourism, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
3. ASEAN Tourism Research Base, Guilin Tourism University, Guilin 541000, China
4. School of History Culture & Tourism, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116, China
5. College of Land Resources and Environment, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China

Received:2021-08-07 Revised:2021-08-20 Published:2021-08-28 Online:2021-11-09

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

积极响应全球气候变化和坚决贯彻党中央提出的碳达峰、碳中和（简称“双碳”）目标是中国旅游业高质量发展的重要使命。本文在评估1990—2020年中国旅游业碳排放状况基础上,预测2021—2060年中国旅游业碳排放,分析中国旅游业实现“双碳”目标的主要挑战、任务与实现路径。研究结果表明：（1）中国旅游业碳排放可分为4个阶段;碳排放结构特征显著,旅游交通及休闲度假是碳排放主体;旅游消费需求增长趋势下唯有以低碳情景推进,方能在2030—2035年间实现旅游业碳达峰,为实现碳中和目标减缓阻力。（2）中国旅游业实现“双碳”目标面临旅游碳排增速快、全球气候变化威胁、碳排放边界模糊、品质化旅游需求旺盛、减碳技术不足5大挑战;必须从宏观-产业、中观-目的地与企业、微观-游客3个维度确定实现“双碳”目标的主要任务;坚守统筹协调、因地制宜、尊重规律、推广科技、差异化实现5大发展原则。（3）高质量发展下中国旅游业“双碳”目标的实现路径应从供给侧、消费端、政策支撑3方面突破,在供给侧加快能源结构调整、加大减碳技术投入、增强碳汇能力,在消费端促进旅游消费主体、消费场所、服务组织的减碳全面响应,在政策支撑加快完善低碳政策、鼓励低碳政策创新。本文立足中国旅游业实现“双碳”目标的研究前沿,初步建立了旅游“双碳”理论,丰富了低碳旅游理论,可为高质量发展下中国旅游业“双碳”目标实现提供决策参考。

关键词: 旅游业, 碳排放预测, 碳达峰, 碳中和, 低碳发展, 绿色发展, 高质量发展, 生态文明

Abstract:

Actively responding to global climate change and resolutely implementing the "dual-carbon" goal proposed by the CPC Central Committee are important missions for the high-quality development of China's tourism industry. Based on the carbon emission evaluation of China's tourism industry from 1990 to 2020, this paper forecasts future carbon emission from 2021 to 2060, and subsequently analyzes the major challenges, tasks, and approach. The results show that: (1) China's tourism carbon emission history can be divided into four stages. The carbon emission structure shows prominent features, with tourism transportation and leisure vacation as the main body. Only with the promotion of low-carbon emission can we achieve the carbon peaking target of tourism industry in 2030-2035 during the post epidemic era and reduce the resistance to carbon neutrality. (2) China’s tourism industry faces 5 major challenges in achieving the "dual-carbon" goal, including rapid growth of tourism carbon emissions, threats from global climate changes, fuzzy carbon emission boundaries, strong demand for quality tourism, and insufficient carbon reduction technologies. Therefore, it is necessary to establish the major tasks from 3 dimensions: macro - industry, meso - destination and enterprise, and micro - tourists, as well as adhere to the 5 development principles, including overall coordination, adapting measures to local conditions, respecting laws, promoting science and technology, and differentiation. (3) The approach to China's tourism "dual-carbon" goal in the context of high-quality development should incorporate three aspects: supply side, consumption side, and policy support. On the supply side, it is critical to accelerate the adjustment of energy structure, increase the investment in carbon reduction technology, and enhance carbon sink capacity. On the supply side, it is critical to promote the carbon reduction of tourism consumption subjects, consumption sites, and service organizations. On the policy support, it is critical to accelerate the improvement and innovation of low-carbon policies. Based on the research frontier of achieving the "dual-carbon" goal of China's tourism industry, this paper preliminarily establishes the theory of tourism "dual-carbon" and enriches the theory of low-carbon tourism, which will provide decision-making insights for achieving the "dual-carbon" goal of China's tourism industry in the context of high-quality development.

Key words: tourism, carbon emission forecast, carbon peaking, carbon neutrality, low-carbon development, green development, high-quality development, ecological civilization

唐承财, 查建平, 章杰宽, 陶玉国, 王立国, 王露, 韩莹. 高质量发展下中国旅游业“双碳”目标：评估预测、主要挑战与实现路径[J]. 中国生态旅游, 2021, 11(4): 471-497.

TANG Chengcai, ZHA Jianping, ZHANG Jiekuan, TAO Yuguo, WANG Liguo, WANG Lu, HAN Ying. The goal of China's tourism industry carbon peak and neutrality (dual-carbon) in the context of high-quality development: Evaluation and prediction, major challenges, and approach[J]. ECOTOURISM, 2021, 11(4): 471-497.

图/表 8

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表1

未来旅游碳排放量预测情景设定

情景类型	情景描述	变化率设定
基准情景	保持经济持续平稳增长基调; 考虑新冠疫情、经济逆全球化等新形势对各因素的影响,其中新冠疫情对经济维度尤其是旅游业的影响限定在近6年（2020—2025年）; 在当前节能减排对策和措施下按照现有模式推进旅游发展	参考美国人口调查局网站公布的中国人口预测数据设定未来中国人口数量变化; 按照中国经济建设的“三步走”战略目标,2050年要达到中等发达国家的水平,故参照姜克隽等^[46],结合新冠疫情影响,设定各时段内中国人均GDP增长速度：2021—2025年为2.45%、2026—2030年为5.70%、2031—2040年为3.40%、2040—2050年为2.70%、2051—2060年为1.60%; 参照世界经济论坛《2017旅游竞争力报告》,美国、中国、德国、日本、英国和法国的旅游业在国民经济系统中的占比在2%~5%之间,其中中国旅游占GDP比例已处于高位,故可保持当前中国旅游GDP占比设定; 以当前旅游业节能减排和措施的行业发展情况为参考,不再新增任何节能减排的对策措施,即以排放强度下降率2.50%为设定值
节能情景	在基准情景基础上; 积极引进、吸收与研发先进的低碳节能技术,加快能源供给、交通运输、食品制造、旅游装备制造等旅游相关行业用能设施的节能改造,推进旅游相关行业低碳节能环保产品研发与推广; 不同旅游相关行业协同推进清洁能源替代工作,用天然气代替煤和石油、用风能、太阳能、生物质能、核能等可再生能源代替传统化石能源;加强对能源的生产、分配、转换和消费等环节的管理,减少各环节能源浪费,联合旅游相关行业,全链条、全流程协同提升能源利用效率	与基准情景一致,设定未来中国人口数量变化及人均GDP增长速度; 与基准情景一致,按照当前中国旅游GDP占比对预测模型中旅游占GDP比例做出设定; 考虑到旅游需求释放受到旅游服务供给、社会保障; 依据节能情景刻画,以中等节能减排强度推进而实现的旅游经济发展与碳排放状态,设定排放强度下降率为3.25%
低碳情景	在强化节能情景设置的各项条件基础上; 进一步聚焦旅游领域节能减排工作,以更严苛的标准淘汰落后技术产能,譬如推进旅游出行和景区内部交通工具由化石燃料汽车向新能源车（电动汽车、天然气汽车、太阳能汽车、氢气动力车等）转变,鼓励旅游景区和酒店采用太阳能、风能、生物质能等能源; 在旅游业领域增加经济性碳补偿措施,对航空旅游和自驾旅游等高碳交通方式征收碳税,对景区中高档住宿、餐饮、娱乐与购物支付额外碳补偿费用; 倡导游客树立低碳消费观念与行为方式,提高游客低碳消费意识,树立低碳旅游理念,选择低碳旅游产品	与基准情景一致,设定未来中国人口数量变化及人均GDP增长速度; 与基准情景一致,按照当前中国旅游GDP占比对预测模型中旅游占GDP比例做出设定; 依据低碳情景刻画,以高等节能减排强度推进而实现的旅游经济发展与碳排放状态,设定排放强度下降率为3.50%

表1

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高质量发展下中国旅游业“双碳”目标：评估预测、主要挑战与实现路径

The goal of China's tourism industry carbon peak and neutrality (dual-carbon) in the context of high-quality development: Evaluation and prediction, major challenges, and approach

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