旅游生态系统“空间均衡”演化的理论探讨与动态评价研究——以贵州4个世界自然遗产地为例

doi:10.12342/zgstly.20230035

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

科学测度与审视旅游生态系统“空间均衡”演化对促进世界自然遗产地旅游经济和生态环境协调可持续发展具有重要的理论和实践价值。本研究基于系统科学与公理性思维范式，尝试厘定了旅游生态系统“空间均衡”演化内涵、性征及公理化定义，并以贵州4个世界自然遗产地为研究样本，采用系统动力学（SD）模型、压力-状态-响应（PSR）模型、熵权法以及地理探测器等方法对其旅游生态系统“空间均衡”演化及影响因素进行探析。研究发现：（1）旅游生态系统“空间均衡”演化是指区域旅游生态系统在受到局部、可承受范围内的扰动时，通过自身正负反馈作用于整体，并通过系统调控机制进行调节与补偿，最终旅游发展与区域自然、文化和人类生存环境形成良性互动的理想状态；（2）旅游生态系统“空间均衡”的基本性征是相对性与动态性，短期“振荡”与长期“周期”；（3）通过改进的旅游生态系统“空间均衡”演化的公理化定义N=T_e，可以判断出旅游生态系统“空间均衡”的3种演化状态，包括均衡状态、超载状态及滞后状态；（4）2000—2020年，4个案例地旅游生态系统“空间均衡”演化发展呈现不同时空演化特征、地域差异与规律；（5）旅游压力水平、旅游经济水平、旅游环境状态和旅游政策调控是旅游生态系统“空间均衡”演化的共同影响因素。其中，旅游经济水平在各案例地、各年份中均是首要因素，旅游压力水平以及旅游环境状态的影响力随时间推移有所减小，旅游政策调控的影响力在逐渐增大。

关键词: 世界自然遗产地, 旅游生态系统, “空间均衡”演化, 动态评价, 影响因素

Abstract:

Scientific measurement and examination of the “spatial equilibrium” evolution of tourism ecosystem has important theoretical and practical value for promoting the coordinated and sustainable development of tourism economy and ecological environment in world natural heritage sites. Based on the paradigm of system science and axiomatic thinking, this study attempts to construct the connotation, characteristics and axiomatic definition of “spatial equilibrium” evolution of tourism ecosystem. Taking four world natural heritage sites in Guizhou as research samples, the evolution and influencing factors of “spatial equilibrium” of tourism ecosystem were analyzed by using system dynamics (SD) model, pressure-state-response (PSR) model, entropy weight method and geographical detector. The study found that: (1) The evolution of " spatial equilibrium " of tourism ecosystem refers to the ideal state in which the regional tourism ecosystem acts on the whole through its own positive and negative feedback when it is disturbed by local and affordable disturbances, and regulates and compensates through the system regulation mechanism, and finally forms a benign interaction between tourism development and regional nature, culture and human living environment. (2) The basic characteristics of “spatial equilibrium” of tourism ecosystem are relativity and dynamics, short-term “oscillation” and long-term “cycle”. (3) Through the improved axiomatic definition of tourism ecosystem “spatial equilibrium” evolution, three evolutionary states of tourism ecosystem “spatial equilibrium” can be deduced, including equilibrium state, overload state and lag state. (4) From 2000 to 2020, the evolution and development of “spatial equilibrium” of tourism ecosystem in the four case areas showed different spatial and temporal evolution characteristics, regional differences and patterns. (5) The level of tourism pressure, the level of tourism economy, the state of tourism environment and the regulation of tourism policy are the common influencing factors of the evolution of “spatial equilibrium” of tourism ecosystem. Among them, the level of tourism economy is the primary factor in each case and year. The level of tourism pressure and the state of tourism environment have decreased their influence over time, and the influence of tourism policy regulation has gradually increased.

Key words: world natural heritage site, tourism ecosystem, “spatial equilibrium” evolution, dynamic evaluation, influencing factors

杨春宇, 洪焕州, 尤碧莹, 陈子远. 旅游生态系统“空间均衡”演化的理论探讨与动态评价研究——以贵州4个世界自然遗产地为例[J]. 中国生态旅游, 2023, 13(3): 359-379.

Yang Chunyu, Hong Huanzhou, You Biying, Chen Ziyuan. Theoretical discussion and dynamic evaluation of the “spatial equilibrium” evolution of tourism ecosystem: A case study of four world natural heritage sites in Guizhou[J]. ECOTOURISM, 2023, 13(3): 359-379.

图/表 11

图1

图2

表1

旅游生态系统“空间均衡”评价指标体系

目标层（A）	准则层（B）	权重	因素层（C）	权重	指标层（D）	指标属性	权重	指标来源
旅游生态系统“空间均衡”演化 A	压力 B₁	0.244	人口压力 C₁	0.345	当地居民人口增长率（%）D₁	-	0.337	李锦宏等^[32]、李玲^[33]
					当地人口密度（人/km²）D₂	-	0.153	王鹏等^[34]、张志明和许欢科^[35]
					旅游人数增长率（%）D₃	-	0.510	李锦宏等^[32]、陈丽等^[36]
			土地压力 C₂	0.255	游客密度压力（%）D₄	-	0.750	张志明和许欢科^[35]、陈丽等^[36]
			土地压力 C₂	0.255	游客空间压力（%）D₅	-	0.250	杨良健和曹开军^[37]、陈丽等^[36]
			环境压力 C₃	0.287	SO₂年均浓度值（mg/m³）D₆	-	0.516	杨良健和曹开军^[37]、李锦宏等^[32]
			环境压力 C₃	0.287	NO₂年均浓度值（mg/m³）D₇	-	0.484	吴发明^[38]
			自然灾害压力C₄	0.113	重大自然灾害天气次数（%）D₈	-	1.000	张志明和许欢科^[35]
	状态 B₂	0.340	经济状态 C₅	0.565	人均GDP（元/人）D₉	+	0.372	王鹏等^[34]、杨良健和曹开军^[37]
					城镇化率（%）D₁₀	+	0.188	陈丽等^[36]
					旅游收入增长率（%）D₁₁	+	0.440	李玲^[33]、陈丽等^[36]
			环境状态 C₆	0.435	空气质量优良率（%）D₁₂	+	0.391	王鹏等^[34]、杨良健和曹开军^[37]
					饮用水达标率（%）D₁₃	+	0.296	陈丽等^[36]
					森林覆盖率（%）D₁₄	+	0.313	李锦宏等^[32]、张志明和许欢科^[35]
	响应 B₃	0.416	经济响应 C₇	0.393	旅游收入占GDP比重（%）D₁₅	+	0.483	王振波等^[39]、杨良健和曹开军^[37]
					人均旅游收入（元/人）D₁₆	+	0.332	陈丽等^[36]、张志明和许欢科^[35]
					生态建设投入占旅游收入比（%）D₁₇	+	0.185	王贺年等^[17]、陈丽等^[36]
			环境响应 C₈	0.277	垃圾无害化处理率（%）D₁₈	+	0.651	王鹏等^[34]、李玲^[33]
			环境响应 C₈	0.277	固体废物综合利用率（%）D₁₉	+	0.349	杨良健和曹开军^[37]、张志明和许欢科^[35]
			教育响应 C₉	0.171	当地居民素质（%）D₂₀	+	0.737	杨良健和曹开军^[37]、李玲^[33]
			教育响应 C₉	0.171	游客素质（%）D₂₁	+	0.263	陈丽等^[36]、张志明和许欢科^[35]
			规划与技术响应C₁₀	0.159	当地生态规划或政策文件数（个）D₂₂	+	0.714	吴发明^[38]
			规划与技术响应C₁₀		学术论文及科研出版物数（个）D₂₃	+	0.286	吴发明^[38]

表1

图3

图4

图5

表2

图6

图7

图8

表3

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指标	荔波喀斯特	赤水丹霞	施秉喀斯特	梵净山
当地居民人口增长率D₁	△	△	△	△
当地人口密度D₂	△	△	△	△
旅游人数增长率D₃	Θ	Θ	Θ	Θ
游客密度压力D₄	△	△	△	△
游客空间压力D₅	Θ	Θ	Θ	Θ
SO₂年均浓度值D₆	△	△	△	△
NO₂年均浓度值D₇	△	△	△	△
重大自然灾害天气次数D₈	△	△	△	△
人均GDP D₉	Θ	Θ	Θ	Θ
城镇化率D₁₀	Θ	Θ	Θ	Θ
旅游收入增长率D₁₁	Θ	Θ	Θ	Θ
空气质量优良率D₁₂	○	○	○	○
饮用水达标率D₁₃	○	○	○	○
森林覆盖率D₁₄	○	○	○	○
旅游收入占GDP比重D₁₅	Θ	Θ	Θ	Θ
人均旅游收入D₁₆	Θ	Θ	Θ	Θ
生态建设投入占旅游收入比D₁₇	○	○	○	○
垃圾无害化处理率D₁₈	○	○	○	○
固体废物综合利用率D₁₉	○	○	○	○
当地居民素质D₂₀	○	○	○	○
游客素质D₂₁	○	○	○	○
当地生态规划或政策文件数D₂₂	○	○	○	○
学术论文及科研出版物数D₂₃	○	○	○	○

影响因子	指标	年份	荔波喀斯特	赤水丹霞	施秉喀斯特	梵净山
旅游压力水平	旅游人数增长率	2004	0.654^**	0.598^**	0.432^**	0.533^**
		2011	0.473^**	0.451^**	0.372^*	0.431^**
		2018	0.414^**	0.313^*	0.462^**	0.432^**
	游客空间压力	2004	0.553^**	0.534^**	0.534^**	0.432^**
		2011	0.435^*	0.382^*	0.483^**	0.352^*
		2018	0.412^**	0.309^*	0.393^*	0.343^*
旅游经济水平	旅游收入增长率	2004	0.746^**	0.689^**	0.682^**	0.683^**
		2011	0.872^**	0.799^**	0.613^**	0.633^**
		2018	0.743^**	0.653^**	0.555^*	0.535^*
	旅游收入占GDP比重	2004	0.628^**	0.795^**	0.693^**	0.593^**
		2011	0.766^**	0.763^**	0.716^**	0.672^**
		2018	0.652^**	0.533^*	0.673^**	0.545^**
旅游环境状态	空气质量优良率	2004	0.524^**	0.404^*	0.464^*	0.544^*
		2011	0.453^**	0.384^**	0.362^*	0.449^**
		2018	0.433^*	0.514^**	0.593^**	0.525^**
	森林覆盖率	2004	0.688^*	0.508^**	0.512^*	0.593^**
		2011	0.422^**	0.325^*	0.489^**	0.408^*
		2018	0.573^**	0.468^*	0.542^**	0.423^*
旅游政策调控	生态建设投入占旅游收入比	2004	0.221^*	0.213^*	0.193	0.249^*
		2011	0.361^*	0.313^*	0.293^*	0.349^*
		2018	0.564^**	0.633^**	0.574^**	0.556^**
	当地生态规划或政策文件数	2004	0.233^*	0.152	0.044	0.227^*
		2011	0.323^*	0.242^*	0.344^*	0.327^*
		2018	0.419^*	0.512^*	0.601^**	0.533^**